Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - We have seen major developing economies like China and India apply the brakes earlier this year, as inflation grew on the back of commodity shortages.

World growth was running at 4.5%, only 1% or so below the record growth rates of the mid-2000s. This was too fast for raw material supplies to accommodate with current technology.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: - World productivity growth has been slowed down by this raw material shortage … this in our view was the cause of the sharp slowdown in 2006 which in its turn caused the collapse of demand for houses in the US and so the sub-prime crisis.

It will take a decade for new technology and possibly new supplies to allow renewed productivity growth; with plentiful supplies of raw materials this was the era of computer-led growth in productivity.

As growth has been slowed worldwide, so already slow growth in developed countries has slowed even further. This is inevitable.

If these countries were to speed up, demand for commodities would rise faster, spurring sharp price rises, which in turn would force them to slow back down.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: - It is convenient to focus on shortage of credit and excess debt post-banking crisis. But the fundamentals would not permit much growth even if there were plenty of credit and no debt; if the latter situation were the case, then monetary policy would need to tighten. As it is monetary policy can remain easy with the banks in endless disarray.

Seen against this background, the slowdown is natural and should not surprise us. Equally natural is that equity markets are settling, while bond yields fall, with inflation being held down and return on capital depressed by slow productivity growth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - However, none of this implies a return to recession in OECD countries. This would be prevented by a return to quantitative easing and even a deferral of fiscal tightening. Governments and central banks in the OECD are under no pressure from inflation to force down activity. Debt/GDP ratios are rising and this is forcing fiscal tightening. But the pace of this is a matter of choice.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - “As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation”

Furthermore there are investment opportunities in the present environment: high returns to technological advance in commodity use, for example, and to exploration for new sources of supply.

Exports are growing well, as capital goods flow to the fast-growing developing world. Consumption is no longer depressed but rather beginning to grow.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: World Economy and Raw Material Shortages - As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation, despite all the ways in which firms and individuals have managed to find alternative finance sources since the banking crisis.

This points to further quantitative easing. Interest rate policy has become irrelevant; the rates at which private loans are being made bear little relation any more to the rates of interest on government short-term loans.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: The very low rates central banks are charging banks for loans are merely a subsidy to banks; better instead to release banks from the neurotic demands currently being made by regulators for much more capital, for greater caution in loan-making and so on.

Meanwhile it is time to restore official interest rates to their proper function as regulators of the private rate of interest; they should now be raised towards more normal rates.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1

Japan’s economic recovery appears to have faltered unexpectedly sharply during the second quarter of this year. The government’s preliminary GDP statistics put the real quarter-to-quarter growth rate at 0.1%, which translates into an annualised 0.4%, marking an expansion for the third consecutive quarter.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - This represents, however, a striking slowdown from the 0.4% quarterly growth, or annualised 4.4% growth, recorded in the preceding three months. It also fell far short of the median forecast of private-sector economists of annualised 2.3% growth over the preceding period.

Moreover, in nominal terms Japanese GDP has fallen behind China’s: US$1,336.9 billion for China against US$1,288.3 billion for Japan for the quarter.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - Looking at individual demand components, the domestic economy was sluggish, with the exception of private capital expenditure. Private non-residential investment grew by 0.5%, almost the same as in the previous quarter, on the back of improved profits. However, private residential and government investment spending declined sharply by 1.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - The contribution of inventories to GDP growth declined by 0.2 points. This is a bit surprising given the acceleration in imports, and might indicate that there is still room for an upward revision of growth at the next release.

Officials were particularly disturbed by the slowdown of personal consumption. Although the growth in consumer spending had been shored up by the government subsidies, such as those for the purchase of energy-efficient cars and the eco-point incentive program for purchasers of eco-friendly home electric appliances, the effects of these policies apparently wore off during the quarter.

The eco-car subsidies and eco-point system are due to end by the end of September and the end of this year respectively. Meanwhile, even though major corporations are awash with cash, they are extremely cautious about capital investment in view of uncertainties about the domestic and overseas economic situation.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - Exports, the prime driver of growth, rose 5.9% on strong demand from Europe. But the pace of growth slowed from a 7.0% rise in the previous quarter amid signs of an economic slowdown in China, one of the biggest destinations for Japanese exports.

It is well-known that Japanese GDP data are volatile and subject to drastic revisions in both directions. Nevertheless, these data suggest that the economy has slowed considerably.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 1 - This has raised concern that the nation’s economic recovery may come to a standstill in the latter half of the fiscal year in the midst of an evident global slowdown of recovery.

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Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article

Shaw Capital Management Korea News Release - We have seen major developing economies like China and India apply the brakes earlier this year, as inflation grew on the back of commodity shortages. World growth was running at 4.5%, only 1% or so below the record growth rates of the mid-2000s. This was too fast for raw material supplies to accommodate with current technology.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article  - World productivity growth has been slowed down by this raw material shortage … this in our view was the cause of the sharp slowdown in 2006 which in its turn caused the collapse of demand for houses in the US and so the sub-prime crisis.

It will take a decade for new technology and possibly new supplies to allow renewed productivity growth; with plentiful supplies of raw materials this was the era of computer-led growth in productivity.

As growth has been slowed worldwide, so already slow growth in developed countries has slowed even further. This is inevitable.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Article - If these countries were to speed up, demand for commodities would rise faster, spurring sharp price rises, which in turn would force them to slow back down.

It is convenient to focus on shortage of credit and excess debt post-banking crisis. But the fundamentals would not permit much growth even if there were plenty of credit and no debt; if the latter situation were the case, then monetary policy would need to tighten. As it is monetary policy can remain easy with the banks in endless disarray.

Seen against this background, the slowdown is natural and should not surprise us. Equally natural is that equity markets are settling, while bond yields fall, with inflation being held down and return on capital depressed by slow productivity growth.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: However, none of this implies a return to recession in OECD countries. This would be prevented by a return to quantitative easing and even a deferral of fiscal tightening. Governments and central banks in the OECD are under no pressure from inflation to force down activity. Debt/GDP ratios are rising and this is forcing fiscal tightening. But the pace of this is a matter of choice.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: “As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation”

Furthermore there are investment opportunities in the present environment: high returns to technological advance in commodity use, for example, and to exploration for new sources of supply.

Exports are growing well, as capital goods flow to the fast-growing developing world. Consumption is no longer depressed but rather beginning to grow.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, the need remains to stimulate recovery of the banks since they remain the primary channel of intermediation, despite all the ways in which firms and individuals have managed to find alternative finance sources since the banking crisis.

This points to further quantitative easing. Interest rate policy has become irrelevant; the rates at which private loans are being made bear little relation any more to the rates of interest on government short-term loans.

Lack of Raw Material and the World Economy: Shaw Capital Management Newsletter - The very low rates central banks are charging banks for loans are merely a subsidy to banks; better instead to release banks from the neurotic demands currently being made by regulators for much more capital, for greater caution in loan-making and so on.

Meanwhile it is time to restore official interest rates to their proper function as regulators of the private rate of interest; they should now be raised towards more normal rates.