Shaw Capital Management: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US Part 1 of 2

World wide recovery appears to have firmed up. In the UK the statistics have lagged behind the anecdotal signs of the same thing. No one still believes the ONS’s peculiar decision to call a revised GDP drop of 0.2% in the third quarter (now revised down from an initial estimate of 0.4%). The UK now have not merely surveys of purchasing managers but also employment, production and retail sales figures, all of which suggest that the economy levelled off in the third quarter and could have possibly also

started expanding then, and was definitely expanding in the fourth. The most troubling aspect of the recovery in western economies including the UK is the lack of credit growth to the non-bank private sector. However, this has been accompanied by a general easing in monetary conditions, as

measured by other indicators, such as rates of interest on corporate loans and bonds, and the cost of equity capital.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - So it appears that the policy easing carried out by virtually all western central banks has succeeded in offsetting at least much of the effects of the credit crunch created by the banking crisis.

Another feature has been the willingness of western governments to allow their budget balances to move into heavy deficit.

The way to think of this is that governments will eventually have to pay off these deficits by either cutting spending services to the private sector or raising taxes on it. Hence these deficits are loans to the private sector to perform current services or avoid collecting current taxes; these loans will be paid off in the future. The government is effectively giving credit to the private sector that has dried up through the usual channels.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - Some people would like to debate whether such government deficits are effective in supporting the economy; however it should be obvious that in a credit crunch all credit provision is likely to be effective in offsetting the credit shortage. One can agree that in normal times deficit multipliers could well be low because rational consumers will work out that they must pay future taxes to pay for the deficits and hence they may well save in response, so offsetting the direct deficit stimulus.

However in a credit crunch this argument is irrelevant because the private sector is liquidity-constrained. So monetary and fiscal policy have both been dominated by the need to provide a substitute for bank credit. They have done so and been rather effective in this.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - As long as the recovery does not raise inflation and require interest rates to rise, and money creation to be stopped and reversed, the government deficits have been costless because financed by money creation at zero interest rate therefore.

The burning question is when is the turning point, when ‘monetary exit’ must be started, turning these deficits into expensive processes that could violate sustainability conditions, and hence precipitating the necessity of fiscal exit also.

From the UK or US perspective there is no real reason to rush to the exit.  Both countries’ public debt/GDP ratios are quite low, in the region of 50 80% respectively. There is no history of outright default, or of refusal to pay taxes. The main issue concerns the possibility of using inflation as a partial default tool.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - In the UK there has been a formal inflation target of 2% or so for 17 years; in the US there is no formal target but a widespread assumption encouraged by the Fed that there effectively is one of the same order. Since debt has been issued over a long period on the assumption of such a target, the gain to the Treasury from a burst of inflation would be large; it would act like a windfall tax on bond investors.

For example to reduce the debt/GDP ratio in the UK back to 40% from its current level of 56% would just require four years of inflation at 6%, only 4% over the target.

Shaw Capital Management Korea: Debit Policy is Working Well in UK & US - Tempting as this might sound, it is striking how little public interest there is in it. Inflation was highly unpopular in both countries when it was out of control in the 1970s and early 1980s; inflation targeting has proved politically successful for this reason.

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Article

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Article - Japan’s economic recovery appears to have faltered unexpectedly sharply during the second quarter of this year. The government’s preliminary GDP statistics put the real quarter-to-quarter growth rate at 0.1%, which translates into an annualised 0.4%, marking an expansion for the third consecutive quarter.

It is well-known that Japanese GDP data are volatile and subject to drastic revisions in both directions. Nevertheless, these data suggest that the economy has slowed considerably.

Japan’s Economic Growth Slowed Again Part 2: Shaw Capital Management Korea - This has raised concern that the nation’s economic recovery may come to a standstill in the latter half of the fiscal year in the midst of an evident global slowdown of recovery.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - Export growth is expected to weaken in line with the slowing of world trade and recent strength of the yen. Even the Chinese economy is slowing down. On the other hand, corporate profits have been good, but the appreciation of the yen and stagnation in the domestic market might reduce the appetite of Japanese firms for investment at home. Indeed, private machinery orders, an indicator for capital investment, have been very weak. There are increasing signs that many firms are sending more of their production offshore.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Under these circumstances, the government is reported to have started considering an additional stimulus package to deal with the appreciation of the yen, the decline in stock prices, and deflation.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan will have a talk with State Minister for National Policy Satoshi Arai, Minister of Finance Yoshihiko Noda, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Masayuki Naoshima on the shape of a new package, which may be announced in early September, according to the press.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - Economists and observers criticized the government, and the central bank, for failing to take appropriate measures and urged them to craft bolder policies to decisively face up to the wobbly state of the economy. In particular, they emphasized the importance of preventing any further appreciation of the yen and demanded that the government and the Bank of Japan act first of all to put a brake on the yen’s rise in preparation for the growing fear of a second dip in business.

“The yen’s rise not only squeezes exporters’ profits but also, if left as it is, will encourage manufacturing companies to shift production bases outside Japan, resulting in an irrevocably adverse influence on employment and other segments.

Shaw Capital Management Korea Newsletter - The Finance Ministry should not hesitate to intervene in the foreign exchange market”, said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. With the currency recently rising to a 15-year high against the US dollar, speculation has increased that Japanese authorities may act soon to slow the surging yen. BOJ officials have opposed the idea of more aggressively using their balance sheet because of worries that it could increase market concerns about Japan’s fiscal discipline and that the anti-deflation drug could prove too effective, causing prices to rise out of control. Many analysts believe that the BOJ will make a move in the foreign exchange market soon.

Shaw Capital Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – The key to successful financing is structuring loans right. Avoid Debt Management Scams.

An estimated half of all small businesses depend on private investments from family and friends for startup or expansion. Shipping giant UPS was launched when 19-year-old entrepreneur Jim Casey borrowed $100 from a friend to start the company nearly 100 years ago in Seattle. And when teenager Fred DeLuca opens a sandwich shop in 1965 with a $1,000 check from a family friend, Subway (now 25,000 restaurants) was born. Friends and family is the single most important outside funding source for small business in America. But there are risks, and "F&F" money must be approached carefully.

Shaw Capital Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends - Action Steps. The best contacts and resources to help you get it done.

Put a financing facilitator to work. Small business loans from friends and family often go awry because they haven't been properly structured and administered. Sign up a service that will prepare documents, create repayment schedules, bill, collect payments and provide year-end tax statements.

I recommend: Virgin Money (formerly CircleLending) has been a pioneer in private loan administration. The firm helps manage transactions such as small business loans between private parties — especially family and friends.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing – The key to successful financing is structuring loans right. Avoid Debt Management Scams - Offer equity in your business. If your business is a corporation or LLC, your funding source can become an equity investor, buying shares in your business.

I recommend: At Intuit's MyCorporation.com web site, you can incorporate a business or form an LLC online for as little as $149, plus state filing fees.

Put your plan in writing. Even with family and friends, you need to put a business plan and request for funding in writing. Make it as detailed, professional and realistic as you can. Aim for full disclosure of all potential risks.

I recommend: A terrific place to find help writing your plan is Bplans.com.

Arm yourself with finance facts. The better you understand the intricacies of financing, the more likely you are to succeed.

I recommend: "Financing Your Small Business: How to Borrow Money from People Your Know," is a helpful booklet produced jointly by SCORE and CircleLending.

Shaw Capital Management and Financing Guide to Business Loans from Family & Friends - Tips & Tactics. Helpful advice for making the most of this Guide. Plan your approach in advance. Think about your ideal loan and how it would work, and have those details at hand. Be yourself when you approach people for money. Don't try to suddenly come off like a big corporate executive. That's likely to be a turnoff. Don't borrow more than your friend or relative can afford to lose. Let them name the final amount. You don't have to get it all from one person. Agree on terms and formalize the agreement in writing. If it's a loan, this should specify an interest rate, repayment schedule and whether the loan is secured or not.