Shaw Capital Management March Newsletter: Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year

Shaw Capital Management: Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year

Japanese Government Submits Budget for Next Fiscal Year: Shaw Capital Management News

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen.

At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second, initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating. “The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.” “Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note.

“It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points.

 At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP. “At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour. More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April. “Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers. “Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before takingeffect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

Factoring and Accounts Receivable Financing Expert Tips

Shaw Capital Management and Financing sharing information, tips and advice on factoring and accounts receivable financing and factoring to avoid scams and other fraudulent transactions. Information focus on the importance of choosing the right firm and understanding the intricacies of this financing alternative and what pitfalls to avoid.

There probably isn't a day when Canadian business owners and financial managers don't hear about factoring and accounts receivable financing as a method of financing their business in Canada. Despite its growing popularity and, we can say, relative importance in the Canadian business financing marketplace this financing mechanism is still somewhat understood.

What information do business owners need to know in order to assess if factoring, also known as invoice discounting, is a viable transaction? Also, are there mistakes and pitfalls to be avoided when considering this financing strategy?

Let's examine the answers to some of those questions. You can be forgiven for trying to figure out why factoring has increased in prominence from a time when no one had almost ever heard of it! The answer to that popularity is more simply and obvious than you might think, and its simply that Canadian chartered banks are finding it increasingly more difficult to fund accounts receivable (and inventory of course) to the extent that their customers need this financing.

When you have a situation where the actual need for financing is acute, and the benefits and flexibility seems significant it is not hard to see the rise in popularity of such a financing mechanism.

First of all, 99% of the time, factoring provides your firm with a greater level of borrowing based on your accounts receivable levels. Quite of 90-100% of you're A/R under 90 days can be financed.

So is it all good news? Not necessarily, as we are always meeting with clients that have chosen the wrong type of funding or factoring, and, even worse, find them locked into contracts they cannot get out of. That is uncomfortable for any size firm as you can imagine.

As with any newer type of financing the playing field is complex. You can be forgiven for not knowing how many factor firms are out there, how they run, what their own limitations are, and, even to a certain extent, do they in fact themselves have the funding to survive, let along finance your firm. For that reason we cannot over emphasize the need to work with a credible, experienced and trusted professional in this area.

Lets talk about some of the nuances, we can call them potential 'pitfalls 'also, of picking the wrong factoring partner. For a starter if you choose a firm who itself is not well capitalized, as we said, you might find that the financing commitments made to you cannot be honored. Canadian business has never had to think that the Canadian chartered banks could be 'out of money 'but the Canadian landscape is somewhat littered with small and medium sized factor firms that do not have the financial wherewithal to support their funding commitments in all places. That just re - enforces our idea that a trusted industry expert will guide you to the best partner for your firm.

Other issues, again, we can call them pitfalls, to look for include:

- being locked into a contract

- having the total factoring cost, or pricing, not reflected properly in your term sheet

- advance rates which don't make sense relative to the price you are paying for discounting invoices

- Excessive notification and intrusion with your customers, which is very prevalent in the U.S. model of factoring (Many Canadian factor firms are branches of U.S. firms)

So let's recap. It's simply that factoring is growing in popularity. It works because it is providing funding where banks often cannot. If you don't understand who you are dealing with and the various nuances of this type of financing it becomes a burden, not a solution. Investigate this great financing mechanism, but ensure you know what you are getting into. Talking to an expert always helps - that's just common sense

Stan Prokop is founder of 7 Park Avenue Financial. Originating financing for Canadian companies, specializing in working capital, cash flow, and asset based financing, the 6 year old firm has completed in excess of 45 Million $ of financing for companies of all size.

c� q r �P ��M uble-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.

“Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Japan Submits Budget for 2010

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen.

At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second, initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating.

“The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’spublic finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.”

“Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note. “It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points. At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.

“At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour.

More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April. “Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.

“Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.